From a business perspective -- who's making money on mobile phones in one way or the other -- the clear winners are Apple, Google (via advertising, mostly) and Samsung.
So today, we can say that the smartphone market is solidly controlled by two companies that are less than nine miles apart from each other in Silicon Valley in the U.S. (Apple and Google), plus Samsung in South Korea.
These three companies in two countries ship the handsets, make the operating systems and collect most of the profits.
But what will the mobile market look like five years from now?
Meet the new operating systems
All is not well in the universe of mobile platforms, or operating systems.Apple's iOS platform used to be much better loved by Apple fans. It had by far the most and best apps, and it was perceived by most to be innovative and leading edge.
But the Android platform is either catching up to, or has already surpassed, iOS in both innovation, as well as the quantity and quality of available apps. When you combine software improvements on Android with a vastly greater variety of available handsets, many former iPhone users are defecting to the other side, or thinking about it.
While users are growing ever fonder of the Android platform and its apps, hardware makers that create Android-powered phones are growing less fond. The issue is direct competition from Google itself.
Google has twice launched phone initiatives where it decided to sell Google-branded phones. The first initiative was in early 2010 when Google launched the Nexus One, followed by the Nexus S. They were manufactured by Samsung, but the fact that Google was involved in their design and sold them directly gave the phones a huge advantage over any phone Samsung might sell -- or any phone Samsung's competitors might sell.
Google later came out with the Galaxy Nexus (made by Samsung) and later still the Nexus 4.
Google also bought Motorola last year, both for the patents and also presumably to assert some control over the direction of Android mobile devices.
The first serious assertion of that control may be the development of a device called the Google X phone, which is being developed at Motorola and which is expected to be unveiled at Google's May developer's conference, Google I/O.
Nobody knows what the Google X phone (and tablet) will be like, but hints, rumors and speculation agree that it will be very different from existing Android phones.
All this strong competition from Google makes handset makers wonder whether Google is friend or foe, and whether they might be better off with another software platform.
These disaffected Google partners may be looking more closely at Microsoft's Windows Phone 8, now that Nokia reported some impressive numbers (both of which included the numeral 4, oddly enough): The company sold 4.4 million Lumia Windows Phone devices and reported a year-over-year quarterly U.S. market revenue increase of 444%.
Although the market punished Nokia's earnings, a careful analyst might notice that Nokia's Lumia line failed horribly in the so-called "emerging markets" of China and elsewhere, but succeeded in the U.S. and Europe. The company is making more money on far fewer handsets than before. In other words, Windows Phone 8 may be helping Nokia's economic situation become less like Google's (high volume, low margin) and more like Apple's (high margin, low volume).
Beyond iOS, Android and Windows Phone, there are other emerging platforms under consideration by some current Android handset makers.
In fact, Google's biggest and most profitable Android partner, Samsung, is supporting a new platform called Tizen. (Intel is also a backer.) If Samsung switched from Android to Tizen, the phone platform scene would be transformed overnight. The first Tizen devices are expected within three months.
Mozilla, the people who make the Firefox browser, are developing the Firefox OS for smartphones. The first Firefox phones are expected to hit next month.
The people at Ubuntu Linux, the most popular client version of that operating system, are building a version for smartphones.
HP's WebOS, acquired from Palm, is still a potential factor, especially since HP plans to release an open-source version called Open WebOS.
Note that all of these platforms -- Tizen, Firefox OS, Ubuntu Linux and Open WebOS -- are Linux-based and all or most will be relatively open compared with Android.
Meet the new handset makers
While upstart platforms threaten to take advantage of weaknesses in the iOS and Android worlds, a similar thing is happening in handsets.Right now, Samsung and Apple dominate. But in China and in other markets, Chinese companies are growing faster than the global leaders.
Sometime this year, we'll reach the point where half the mobile phones sold in the world will be smartphones, rather than feature phones. The reason for that shift is partly caused by a drastic reduction in pricing for smartphones, thanks to low-cost Chinese brands. And also high-end brands.
In China itself, for example, Samsung is the No. 1 handset maker. But No. 2 is Lenovo, a Chinese company, and its handset business is profitable, too. According to one article, there are more than 100 Chinese companies now making smartphone handsets, and they all want to be Samsung.
Rumors have been circulating that Lenovo is in talks to buy RIM -- a development that, combined with continued aggressive growth, could thrust Lenovo into Samsung territory as a global maker of phones.
So if Samsung is No. 1 and Lenovo is No. 2, Apple must be No. 3, right? Wrong!
No. 3 in the Chinese market is Huawei, followed by ZTE, followed by Coolpad. By unit sales, Apple is the No. 6 handset maker in China -- and its market share is shrinking.
These companies, especially Huawei and ZTE, are bringing the smartphone revolution to emerging markets, for the most part. And now they want entry into the U.S. and European markets. Huawei and ZTE each had a large presence at the International CES trade show, which served as a kind of coming out party for those companies in the U.S.
Samsung and Apple fans may scoff at the idea that some obscure Chinese brand like Huawei or ZTE could take market share away from the leaders. But if either or both of these companies can make phones that are 95% as good as Samsung's best phone, and cost half the price, people are going to buy them in large numbers.
Apple, Google and Samsung control the global market for smartphones. But over the next year or two, all that could change as new software platforms and new handset makers take advantage of the leaders' stumbles to gobble up market share, market power and influence over the direction of mobile devices.
Correction: This column has been changed to say that Samsung was the maker of the Nexus S smartphone. The story originally stated that the phone was built by HTC.
Mike Elgan writes about technology and tech culture. You can contact Mike and learn more about him on Google+. You can also see more articles by Mike Elgan on Computerworld.com.
Is Sony Gaining Momentum in Smartphones?
While
Japan's ailing consumer-electronics sector struggles to regain
momentum, it turns out that Sony Corp. actually climbed to the No. 3
position in the global smartphone market in the third quarter. Sony,
which was the No. 6 player in the same quarter a year earlier, came only
behind Samsung Electronics Co. and Apple Inc., according to the latest
data from research firm IDC.
Investors pushed the BlackBerry maker's stock up as much as 15% in early trading on Friday.
ASIA NEWS Apple to Provide HTC-Pact Details
A
U.S. judge ordered Apple to disclose to Samsung details of its patent
settlement with Taiwanese smartphone maker HTC, a move that could help
the Korean company build its case to fight a potential sales ban in the
U.S..
Nokia Corp. sank to seventh place in the booming global smartphone market in the third quarter, as Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. maintained their hold on a segment once dominated by the Finnish company.
Nokia accounted for 7.2 million, or 4.3%, of the 169.2 million smartphones sold world-wide in the latest quarter, taking the company down from third place in the prior three-month period, research firm Gartner Inc. said Wednesday.
The handset maker's chief executive, Stephen Elop, said that while he is pleased with the sales progress of Nokia's recently launched Lumia smartphones, he realizes the company still needs ...
As Apple's Battle With HTC Ends, Smartphone Patent Fights Continue
By NICK WINGFIELD
Apple's settlement
of an Android-related lawsuit could be a sign that its chief wants to
end the distraction of patent fights, but it does not necessarily
portend a similar agreement with Samsung.
Apple Starts Taking iPhone 5 Preorders
Apple
appeared to have sold out of its initial inventory of the iPhone 5 just
an hour after it began accepting preorders, suggesting strong consumer
interest.
In China, iPhone Fights to Stay Cool
Apple remains the top seller of high-price mobile phones in China, but the company's hold on the lucrative niche is slipping.
Nokia Laments 'Poor Judgment' in Lumia Marketing
Nokia
said its use of misleading marketing material for its new range of
Lumia smartphones was a result of "poor judgment" and the company has
taken "appropriate action" to correct the problem.
Google is allegedly playing hardball with its Android partners.
The company forced Acer to drop its support of Alibaba's new mobile operating system, Aliyun, threatening to pull its Android-related cooperation and support if Acer didn't, according to a report from the Dow Jones Newswires.
Acer was originally scheduled to hold a press conference today to show off a smartphone running on Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba's Aliyun platform, but it cancelled the event. Acer told Dow Jones that it will continue to talk with Google and hopes to still use Aliyun.
Google is allegedly playing hardball with its Android partners.
The company forced Acer to drop its support of Alibaba's new mobile operating system, Aliyun, threatening to pull its Android-related cooperation and support if Acer didn't, according to a report from the Dow Jones Newswires.
Acer was originally scheduled to hold a press conference today to show off a smartphone running on Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba's Aliyun platform, but it cancelled the event. Acer told Dow Jones that it will continue to talk with Google and hopes to still use Aliyun.
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