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2012年6月11日 星期一

Lessons from Voltaire,伏爾泰對債務的建議


約十年前知道牛津大學是 伏爾泰全集的大本營 網路公布之
 現在看這種文章 很有點宣傳與真理之間的趣味

伏爾泰對債務的建議


 索邦大學副研究員帕特里克•奈爾茨, 牛津大學伏爾泰基金會總裁尼古拉斯•克朗克為英國《金融時報》撰稿

我們這個時代的伏爾泰在哪裡?金融機構和政治家們正為歐元區債券等問題爭吵不休,他們不妨追憶一下這位偉大的歐洲哲學家。畢竟,國家債台高築不是21世紀獨有的現象。
在啟蒙運動時期,歐洲各國的債務問題跟如今同樣嚴重,儘管原因不同。那時候債務形成的原因,不是社會福利開支過大,而是為了保衛王朝統治或捍衛自尊而發動無意義的戰爭。付給僱傭兵的軍餉幾乎掏空了這些國家的財政。
如伏爾泰常常說的,法國就捲入了這類冒險,通過舉債四處打仗。當時的法蘭西王國是如何填補財政缺口的呢?是通過製造通脹、求助於銀行家、債務違約和徵稅——是不是有些耳熟?
伏爾泰認為自己的主要身份是詩人和劇作家。他從來不認為自己是個經濟學家,但他絕對有這樣的潛力。伏爾泰把自己的資產打理得非常好,他曾驕傲地寫道,“文人中做到我這樣的極少”。他還常常對公共債務問題發表評論。
伏爾泰的業務基地在瑞士邊境,他就像一位現代企業家,經營著某種綜合企業,涉足農業、制革、製陶和房地產投資,還有一家紡織廠和一家擁有1000名員工的製錶廠。他將自由放任資本主義與計劃經濟的保護主義相結合。也就是說,伏爾泰是個真正的法國人。
這位偉人是亞當•斯密(Adam Smith)的擁躉,當時經濟學是一門新興學科,伏爾泰在這門學科的許多領域都有著述。在與社會不公正現像做鬥爭的同時,身為平民的伏爾泰對高級金融方面的著作很感興趣,還喜歡看如何糾正政府失誤方面的文章。
對於如今仍然存在的一些金融問題,伏爾泰有何建議? ——慎借外債。如伏爾泰所說,記住一點:“從自己的國民那裡借錢,不會讓一個國家變得更窮”。伏爾泰曾向一些外國王子放貸,而且數額可觀,因此對於外債的風險,他是有發言權的。有時候,他還受益於這種風險。
伏爾泰曾兩次向巴伐利亞選帝侯、巴拉丁伯爵卡爾•泰奧多爾(Charles Theodore)放貸,後者違約了。第一次是在1753年,金額為10萬里弗;第二次是在1757年,金額為13萬里弗,這在當時都是不小的數目。泰奧多爾承諾會還錢,但從未兌現。
但另一方面,伏爾泰也用自己精明的理財頭腦,迫使財務名聲不佳的符騰堡公爵(Duke of Wurtemberg)一次次向自己借新債還舊債,最終光支付的利息就相當於借款額的三倍。因此,伏爾泰的著述對我們理解如今的市場會有一些啟示。
關於負債問題,伏爾泰接下來說:“……這些債務甚至能促進工業發展。”這句話值得我們思考。伏爾泰這句具有先見的話是說,債務清償會給國家經濟中帶來新的資金,而當本國機構現金充裕時,它們就會把這些收益用作消費和投資,從而促進經濟的發展這對如今的歐洲經濟適用嗎?
伏爾泰還指出,如果一國政府只從自己的國民那裡借錢,“只靠信心和財富的流通就能保證還得上錢”。如果歐洲只對內發債、向自己的國民還錢,是否正合伏爾泰之意呢?然而,由公民個人儲蓄提供資金的全歐洲貸款從未存在過。
當然,伏爾泰不是一個只會向德國王子們放貸、自己從中獲利的人。他更是後來被稱作“腓特烈大帝”的普魯士國王的道德啟蒙者和這位國王眼中的大詩人。兩人有分歧,但爭論過後、伏爾泰逃離普魯士之後,國王卻比過去任何時候都更欣賞他。伏爾泰未能說服他的國王朋友不與法國開戰(並戰勝),但如果他勸說國王支持一隻剛開始發行的歐元區債券,為啟蒙運動中的歐洲(包括普魯士)提供資助,那應該是十拿九穩的。
伏爾泰,我們想念你。
本文作者帕特里克•奈爾茨是索邦大學(Sorbonne)17-18世紀法國語言文學研究中心的副研究員,尼古拉斯•克朗克是牛津大學伏爾泰基金會(Voltaire Foundation, University of Oxford)總裁
譯者/吳蔚


2012年06月12日 06:23 AM

Lessons from Voltaire, the enlightened European businessman


 
Where is the Voltaire of our times? As financial institutions and politicians wrangle over eurozone bonds and so on, they could do worse than think back to that great figure from Europe’s past. National indebtedness is after all not unique to the 21st century.
European states in the Enlightenment faced debt problems as chronic as we do, albeit for different reasons. They were not overspending on social programmes; they were waging senseless wars to shore up dynasties or bolster pride. The cost of paying off mercenaries virtually emptied their treasuries.

As Voltaire noted time and again, France was involved in just such adventures, propped up by debt financing. How did the French monarchy cover its exposure? By manipulating inflation, appealing to bankers, defaulting on repayments and raising taxes. Sound familiar?
Voltaire saw himself primarily as a poet and dramatist. He never considered himself an economist but he certainly could have. He was an outstanding manager of his own assets – “a rarity among men of letters”, he proudly wrote of himself – and a frequent commentator on public indebtedness.

From his base of operations on the Swiss border, he became a modern entrepreneur, running a sort of conglomerate of agriculture, tanning, ceramics, real estate investment, a textile mill and a 1,000-employee watchmaking enterprise. He combined his laisser-faire capitalism with dirigiste protectionism. In other words, he was a Frenchman.

The great man was a fan of Adam Smith and wrote about many areas of the new economic science. At the same time that he was fighting against civil injustice, Voltaire the private man was fascinated by the workings of high finance and ways to rectify the miscalculations of governments.

What does he tell us about financial problems that still resonates? Be careful of international lenders. As he put it, remember that “any state that borrows from its own people is no poorer for it”. Having lent considerable sums to foreign princes, he was well placed to understand the risks of sovereign debt when the financing goes international. And he was sometimes the beneficiary.

He had to accept a default by Charles Theodore, prince-elector and count palatine of Bavaria. The first loan, in 1753, was for 100,000 livres, then in 1757 he borrowed another 130,000 livres, considerable sums for the day. The promised reimbursement never came.
On the other hand, the Duke of Wurtemberg, known as a poor risk, was obliged to refinance his recurring indebtedness, and in the end paid three times his borrowings in interest alone, because of the financial acumen of the lender – Voltaire. So from his writings we can glean a foretaste of today’s markets.

The continuation of Voltaire’s phrase on indebtedness is worth considering – “ . . . and these debts even serve as an encouragement to industry”. By this prophetic formulation, Voltaire means that debt service, and repayment, can irrigate a national economy – today’s European economy? – with revenue that is transformed into consumption and investment when local institutions are flush with cash.

Elsewhere, he notes that when a government only borrows from its own people, “confidence and the circulation of wealth are sufficient to ensure repayment”. Wouldn’t it make Voltairian sense for Europe, in many ways, to lend to itself and reimburse its own people? Yet there has never been a Europe-wide loan financed by its private citizens’ savings.

Of course, Voltaire was not just a self-interested benefactor of German princelings. He was mainly the moral inspiration and master poet of the principal among them – the King of Prussia, later known as Frederick the Great. They had their differences but once their dispute was over and Voltaire had fled Prussia, Frederick’s admiration for him was stronger than ever. Voltaire was not able to dissuade his friend from making war (and winning) against France but he might well have persuaded him to back a fledgling eurozone bond to finance an Enlightened Europe, including Prussia.

Voltaire, we miss you.

The writers are associate researcher at the Sorbonne’s centre for research into French language and literature of the 17th and 18th centuries, and director of the Voltaire Foundation, University of Oxford

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