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2012年4月18日 星期三

德國經濟模式真的一枝獨秀?





義大利小企業主爆自殺潮


2012-04 天下雜誌 495期 作者:吳挺鋒
相關關鍵字:
義大利小企業主爆自殺潮 圖片來源:邱劍英 他們曾經是「義大利製造」的功臣,如今卻一個個親手結束自己的生命。所謂義大利式產業聚落型態是什麼?為何曾經風光的義大利產業聚落如今輓歌頻傳?
再見,威尼托(Veneto)。
此處是義大利流行服飾集團班尼頓的發跡地,一直維持小企業、手工坊本色,家族經營是不變傳統;紡織、家具、皮革加工等產業聚落,更曾遠近馳名,但如今,盡成過眼雲煙。
「從經濟危機發生以來,威尼托至少有五十個小企業主自殺,」義大利媒體《Linkiesta》如是報導。
捱不過危機的小企業主自殺潮正在蔓延。從二○○八到二○一一年的債務風暴期間,義大利的企業倒閉家數,已經逼近四萬大關。
這些苦主企業非微即小。據統計,雇用人數在十人以下的微型企業,佔義大利全國的九四%;而員工數在五十人以下的小型企業比例,也近五%。
經營失敗,不必然讓業主選擇走上絕境,美國安隆案、台灣力霸案都是反例,但為何義大利會陷入這種連環套?
這和義大利小企業主的文化價值觀有關。因為規模小、又有家族經營色彩,故勞資關係並不像美國大型企業那樣冰冷,而更具有溫情成分。
此外,企業與社區連結緊密,也讓雇主覺得宣布解雇、關廠或倒閉,是一種會讓人指指點點的污名。
「他們都把工作當作人生目的。當經濟成功時,這會為業主帶來滿足感,一旦失敗,就會產生心理衝擊,」義大利學者迪亞曼提(Ilvo Diamanti)很早以前就提出警告。
值得注意的是,業主自殺潮也與產業聚落的型態脫離不了關係。

在順境時,產業聚落確實有助同業之間的分工合作,除了可分享市場資訊,更是一個讓技術不斷精進的學習網絡。
但現在人們猛然發現,當產業聚落承受不了逆境時,也會兵敗如山倒。除了一個拖累一個,更可能會讓自殺一傳十、十傳百,因為物傷其類而接力「跟進」。


在過去,這些產業聚落因為政府效能不彰,習慣自立更生,不擅外求。至於現任的蒙提總理,由於忙著減赤還債,也讓紓困尚不可期。
威尼托的悲劇,正是義大利動搖國本的縮影。



Germany’s economic model

What Germany offers the world

Other countries would love to import Germany’s economic model. But its way of doing things is a lot less amenable to export than the wares it produces


THE European Central Bank controls Europe’s currency from Frankfurt, Germany’s financial centre. Beckhoff Automation, in a bucolic corner of Westphalia, controls the bank. Or more precisely, its devices control the bank’s lighting and ventilation. Other Beckhoff gizmos raise the curtain and dim the lights at Milan’s Teatro alla Scala. Yet more are embedded in luxury sailboats, in dancing fountains outside Las Vegas hotels and in half the wind turbines made in China.


Omnipresent but obscure, family owned but by no means puny, Beckhoff is among thousands of “hidden champions” that account for much of Germany’s prowess as a manufacturer and exporter. Its sales leapt 34% to €465m ($608m) last year. It is aiming for €2 billion by 2020. Beckhoff exports more than half its output. But its manufacturing is mainly in high-wage, rule-bound Germany.
Largely thanks to its Beckhoffs, Germany looks like a bright exception to the dispiriting rule among developed economies. True, its economy contracted more than those of most rich countries during the 2008-09 world recession (see chart 1). But the jobless rate rose by less than in all the others, peaking at 7.9%. And nobody talks about downgrading Germany’s AAA credit rating; it can borrow money for practically nothing.
Envy and emulation
Not all the news is good. The economy shrank in the final quarter of 2011; and even if first quarter figures do not reveal Germany itself to be in recession, its economy will continue to suffer the drag of recession elsewhere in the euro area and a slowdown in developing countries. But just 1% growth is enough to create jobs, according to Bert Rürup, a former chairman of the government’s council of economic “wise men”. In a book written with a journalist, Dirk Heilmann, “Fat Years: Why Germany has a Brilliant Future”, he giddily predicts that by 2030 Germany will become the world’s richest large country in terms of income per head.

Such success does not bring universal admiration. Germany is hated in parts of Europe for demanding growth-crushing austerity as the price for supporting the euro. Greek tabloids have depicted Angela Merkel, the chancellor, in Nazi uniform. A current account surplus larger than China’s as a share of GDP is a badge of pride for many Germans (see chart 2). But economists such as Simon Tilford of the Centre for European Reform (CER) accuse them of “fetishising exports” while low wage growth depresses their demand for goods from other countries. When in 2010 Christine Lagarde, then France’s finance minister and now head of the International Monetary Fund, questioned whether Germany’s export-dependent model was “sustainable” she spoke for many.
Yet there is also a great deal of admiration. Spain’s education minister is looking into Germany’s “dual system” of vocational training, which combines classroom instruction with work experience. John Cridland, director of the Confederation of British Industry, wants Britain “to have its own version of the German Mittelstand”, ie, firms like Beckhoff. Nicolas Sarkozy began his campaign for re-election as France’s president sounding as if he would gladly swallow the model whole. Germany prioritised “jobs, jobs, jobs,” he said. “If it worked for them, why wouldn’t it work for us?”
But is the model copiable? After a few days in East Westphalia-Lippe (now marketing itself to the world as OWL) you wonder. Beckhoff and its peers have global ambitions but their business culture has deep provincial roots. They look back as much as forward. “We have existed since 1825 and have been doing the same thing since then,” says Dieter Brand, chairman of the Sparkasse, or savings bank, in Bielefeld, the region’s biggest town. In some senses the same is true of his corporate customers. Germany may have reformed and rearticulated its model in recent years. But the underlying skeleton is ancient, and perhaps inimitable.


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