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2009年1月30日 星期五

look beyond the current global crisis

German Chancellor Angela Merkel has called on delegates at the annual World Economic Forum to look beyond the current global crisis and seek ways of ensuring that it doesn't happen again. Merkel told the conference in the Swiss town of Davos that new international structures needed to be developed and that US President Barack Obama's administration would have a key role to play. The chancellor said she hoped the new American government in particular would join Germany in pushing for clearer rules that would enhance transparency and financial risk management. Merkel said a new global economic charter could even take the form of a United Nations body, possibly designed along the lines of the UN Security Council.





上百萬法國工人舉行大罷工
法國馬賽工人大罷工
示威工人要求政府采取措施保障就業和提高工資

上百萬法國工人周四(29日)走上街頭舉行跨行業全國大罷工,抗議法國政府處理金融危機的措施,罷工對法國鐵路和航空交通造成了混亂。

法國各大工會說,約有250萬工人走上街頭遊行示威,要求政府采取措施保障就業、提高工資和購買力水平。

但警方表示罷工人數約有1百萬人。

法國總統薩爾科奇說,工人們對金融危機的擔憂合情合理,政府也願意聽取工人的意見並採取相關措施。

薩爾科奇說,他將在下月與工會和商界領袖見面,商量今年應當採取什麼樣的改革措施。

這次大罷工是在法國八大工會的號召下舉行的。法國政府預計約有四分之一的公務員參加了這次大罷工,但工會認為參與的人數更多。

法國總工會發言人說,共有250萬工人參加了這次大罷工。

法國總工會領導人呼籲薩爾科奇總統認識到有關情況的嚴重性,並呼籲他重新評估政府處理這次經濟危機的措施。

在巴黎,65,000名示威者走過巴士底獄遺址,向市場中心進發。

報道說,當示威者遊行接近市區的時候發生了暴力事件,一些青年在一個主要的商業街道投擲空飲料瓶並在街頭點火。

防暴警察後來這些鬧事青年擋回了巴士底獄遺址附近的示威集合點。



從英國英格蘭東部一個煉油廠開始的抗議雇用外國建築工人的行動有擴大的趨勢。

又有其他四家企業加入了抗議聲援。

在林肯郡北部的英國第三大煉油廠---林西煉油廠,約一千名工人的抗議行動已經是第三天。

他們抗議該煉油廠所屬的道達爾石油公司將價值2億美元的建築合約批給一家意大利公司後,而該意大利公司聘請來自意大利和葡萄牙的工人。

星期五,在蘇格蘭、威爾士和北英格蘭的數千名工人發起罷工聲援行動。

BBC記者說:"聲援罷工行動正在迅速擴大"。

英國環境大臣希拉裡﹒本說,憤怒的工人"有權得到一個答覆"。

道達爾石油公司的負責人說,獲得合約的意大利公司聘請了特別工程力量,他們從外國引進了300多名工人來完成工作。

道達爾說,聘請意大利公司完成合約並不會直接導致該煉油廠解雇本地工人。

抗議的工人還向英國首相布朗發出呼籲:請兌現諾言,英國工作由英國工人來做。

正在瑞士達沃斯出席世界經濟論壇的布朗回應說,他理解人們的擔心。

他說,政府正在盡全力恢復經濟,幫助每個人回到工作崗位。






美末季GDP急挫3.8% 2009-01-31 00:03:30

(綜合報道)(星島日報報道)美國經濟收縮步伐顯著擴大,上季國內生產總值(GDP)跌百分之三點八,是近二十七年以來跌得最急,反映企業與消費者持續緊縮開支,進一步加深美國衰退,預期美國經濟未來數月將持續倒退。

商 務部公布,美國的國內生產總值在去年第三季按年率計下跌百分之零點五後,第四季下跌百分之三點八,為一九八二年首季以來最大單季跌幅,也是九一年第一季以 來首見連跌兩季。不過,上季的經濟收縮步伐較市場分析師原先預測的百分之五溫和,主要得益於企業存貨回升。由於經濟增長跌幅較預期細,美股早段缺乏方向, 開市微升後又輾轉下跌,昨晚十一時跌三十點報八一一八點。

受樓市崩潰以及隨之而來的全球信貸危機拖累,美國經濟自○七年十二月開始轉差,至今仍未復甦。去年全年計,美國經濟增長百分之一點三,是二○○一年以來增長最慢的一年。

商 務部說,佔美國經濟三分二的消費者開支,上季跌幅由第三季的百分之三點八略為收窄至百分之三點五,是一九四七年以來首見連跌兩季跌逾百分之三。上季的耐用 品開支銳減百分之二十二點四,是一九八七年首季以來最大跌幅;企業投資減少百分之十九點一,是一九七五年首季以來最大單季跌幅。

經濟滑坡明顯紓緩美國的通脹壓力,反映物價走勢的個人消費開支物價指數在第三季按月上升百分之五後,上季下跌百分之五點五,創紀錄單季跌幅,受惠於商品價格下跌;按年計跌百分之零點一,是一九五四年以來跌得最多。

商務部表示,去年第四季的企業存貨自○一年多以來首次回升,對拉動GDP的貢獻達到一點三個百分點,部分抵銷了消費者開支持續顯著下滑的負面影響。有分析師指出,存貨回升可能是美國上季經濟收縮幅度比預期輕微的重要原因。

另外,一月份的芝加哥採購經理指數由去年十二月的三十五點一跌至三十三點三,為連續第四個月報跌,並差過市場預期,反映美國製造業在未來數月或將繼續惡化。指數低於五十點表示美國製造業活動呈現收縮。

聯儲局前理事邁耶預期,美國經濟在今年首季仍會向下行,假如沒有刺激經濟方案,整體經濟在今年下半年仍難望復甦。

除美國外,加拿大、日本、南韓和澳洲昨天公布的經濟數據,也反映全球發達國家經濟正滑入衰退泥淖。加拿大十一月份的GDP按月倒退百分之零點七,跌幅遠高於市場預期的百分之零點四以及十月錄得的百分之零點一。

亞洲第四大經濟體系南韓去年十二月的工業生產按年計跌百分之十八點六,刷新十一月的一成四紀錄年跌幅,進一步顯示該國正步入九七年亞洲金融風暴以來首次經濟衰退。

澳洲央行公布,該國上月的私人信貸額下降百分之零點三,遠遜市場預期的增長百分之零點五,是自九二年以來首次錄得收縮,反映外資銀行正削減對澳洲企業放款。


Steep Slide in U.S. Economy as Unsold Goods Pile Up


Published: January 30, 2009

The United States economy shrank at its fastest pace in a quarter-century from October through December, the government reported on Friday, as consumer spending and business investment collapsed, signaling more economic contraction in the months ahead.

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The New York Times

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Today's Business With Jeff Sommer and Louis Uchitelle
Commerce Department News Release on Gross Domestic Product

In the broadest official accounting of the toll of the credit crisis, the government reported that gross domestic product shrank at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008. While that was less than economists’ expectations of a 5.5 percent drop, the decline would have been much steeper — more than 5 percent — if shipments of goods had fallen as sharply as orders.

President Obama seized on the figures Friday morning, calling the contraction a “continuing disaster” for working families, and again urged Congress to pass a package of tax cuts and spending. The House, divided on party lines, passed an $819 billion stimulus plan on Wednesday, and Senate is expected to take up the measure next week.

“What we can’t do is drag our feet or delay much longer,” Mr. Obama said. “The American people expect us to act.”

The president also announced the first meeting of a Task Force on Middle-Class Working Families, which will seek to raise living standards of working families. .

Wall Street tumbled after the numbers were released. The Dow Jones industrial average fell more than 100 points in midday trading, and the broader Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index was down 1.5 percent.

The slide in gross domestic product — a crucial measure of economic health — is likely to continue at an alarming pace well into the summer as consumers continue to curtail spending and businesses reduce their capital investments and cut their payrolls, economists said.

In the fourth quarter, rising inventories accounted for the difference between the overall 3.8 percent contraction of the economy and a steeper 5.1 decline in final domestic sales.

“The difference between 3.8 and 5.1 percent is the inventory buildup,” Nigel Gault, chief United States economist at IHS Global Insight, said. “My only explanation is that companies could not cut production fast enough.”

With inventory accumulation gone, the economy will contract in the first quarter at more than a 5 percent annual rate, Mr. Gault said.

Employers reduced their corporate investments in computers, office equipment, machinery and other capital goods by an annualized 19.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

Trade fell, as Americans bought fewer Asian-made televisions and computers, and global demand for American goods and services ebbed. Exports in the fourth quarter declined 19.7 percent while imports dropped 15.7 percent.

Josh Bivens, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute, said that the drop in exports was distressing because of their contribution to growth in recent years.

“That’s been a real key strength to the economy,” Mr. Bevins said. “They were punching above their weight for a couple of years, but they have really collapsed.”

And American consumers, who took on home equity loans and large amounts of credit card debt to finance their lifestyles earlier in the decade, curtailed their spending for a second consecutive quarter. Consumer spending, which typically accounts for two-thirds of economic growth, fell 3.5 percent in the quarter, after decreasing 3.8 percent in the third quarter.

With no end in sight to the downturn, the stark numbers on Friday are likely to intensify the debate over an enormous stimulus plan moving through Congress.

Christina D. Romer, chairwoman of President Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said the report offered more evidence that the economy continued to contract severely, and said “immediate action” was needed to shore up the financial sector and broader demand.

“Aggressive, well-designed fiscal stimulus is critical to reversing this severe decline and putting the economy on the road to recovery and improved long-run growth,” Ms. Romer said Friday in a statement.

Michael E. Feroli, a United States economist at JPMorgan Chase, said, “The fact that you’re not seeing any evidence that things are turning for the better has added quite a bit to the urgency to get things done and do something substantial.”

The House, divided along partisan lines, passed an $819 billion package of tax cuts and spending on Wednesday, and the Senate is to begin debating its version of the package on Monday. President Obama and most Democrats support the plan, but not a single Republican has voted for it.

While many economists say the stimulus is crucial to replace a paucity of private spending and investment, they are concerned that the tax cuts in the Democratic plan will not be particularly useful, and that more effective spending proposals will take too long to put in place.

“It’s badly needed, and as quickly as possible,” Mr. Gault said. “You’d like to be able to inject a huge amount of stimulus very quickly, but how practically can that be done? Practically speaking, you can’t spend the money that fast.”

The pace of contraction in the fourth quarter was the steepest since 1982, when the economy shrank at an annual rate of 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year, after the Federal Reserve limited bank borrowing as a means of strangling inflation.

But it may be more difficult to pull the country out of this recession than the downturn of the 1980s, when the Federal Reserve helped stimulated growth by slashing interest rates. In December, the Fed cut its target overnight rates to a record low near zero percent, exhausting one of its crucial weapons.

“They’re running out of options,” said Ann L. Owen, associate professor at Hamilton College and a former Fed economist. “They’ve got the Fed funds rate down to basically zero. They’re talking about buying Treasuries. It’s not really clear what kind of effect they can have on the economy.”

Although the recession officially began 13 months ago, as the housing market soured and energy prices pinched consumers, the gross domestic product continued to grow slowly in 2008 until the third quarter, when it contracted at an annual rate of 0.5 percent.

The turmoil in the last three months of the year reflected widespread havoc in the economy. Housing prices fell at their fastest pace on record, credit markets dried up and billions of dollars’ worth of bad mortgage debt threatened the stability of the country’s largest financial institutions.

Because of their losses, many banks pulled back on lending, and even healthy ones tightened lending standards for those who still had a stomach to borrow.

Businesses reeled from falling sales and dim prospects for growth. Employers like Microsoft, Starbucks, Sprint and Home Depot have cut thousands of jobs as they prepare for a difficult year. Unemployment now stands at 7.2 percent, and some economists said that jobless rates could hit 9 percent as the recession spreads like an oil slick.

“It’s a severe contraction,” said Mickey Levy, chief economist at Bank of America. “No sector of the economy is safe right now.”

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