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2008年7月30日 星期三

WTO多哈談判以外的世界經濟潤滑劑

WSJ
多哈談判以外的世界經濟潤滑劑

2008年07月30日14:58



Daniel Ikenson

實早在這周之前﹐世界貿易組織(WTO)
多哈回合談判就已經破裂過無數次了。可是除了日內瓦、布魯塞爾和華盛頓的權力機構之外﹐很少有人悲傷苦惱﹐因為這些年來世界經濟已經發生了巨變。

WTO的報告顯示﹐在多哈談判時斷時續的七年間﹐全球年貿易流量增長了70%﹐達到14萬億美元。根據聯合國貿易和發展會議(UNCTAD)的數據﹐外商直接投資的年流量增加了25%﹐至1.5萬億美元。國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)指出﹐全球經濟規模擴大了30%﹐已達54.4萬億美元。如果各國政府都能大力加強各自的“貿易便利化”措施﹐這種積極的趨勢將會延續下去。

“貿易便利化”的舉措包括精簡跨境貿易所涉及的行政及實際流程。這類改革措施已經對促進全球貿易、投資和產出發揮了功不可沒的作用。

包括世界銀行(World Bank)的斯米恩•迪亞科夫(Simeon Djankov)和約翰•威爾森(John Wilson)在內的全球優秀經濟學家指出﹐“貿易便利化”對增加全球貿易流量起到的作用要甚於進一步降低關稅所帶來的影響。降低關稅固然重要﹐但如果繁復的海關流程和薄弱的物流及通信體系依然未有改變﹐那麼縱然降低關稅也不會促進貿易的發展。

不過“貿易便利化”正逐漸取得進展。世界銀行指出﹐過去三年中有55個國家實行了68項簡化貿易流程的改革舉措。以印度為例﹐它引入的一套網上報關係統可以在運貨船只抵港前就開始處理報關程序﹐為進出口商節省了七天時間。此外﹐盧旺達對其海關保稅倉庫設施進行了一定程度的私有化﹐不僅促進了新倉庫的建設﹐還降低了40%的貯藏費。

然而﹐前面的路依然漫長。世界銀行最新進行的“生意人”(Doing Business)調查向我們介紹了一個也門漁業出口商的故事。這個名叫塔力克(Tarik)的出口商﹐其生意由於長期存在的繁瑣出口流程而受到了限制。他原本能以每公斤5.2美元和1.1美元的價格分別向德國和巴基斯坦出口新鮮金槍魚和冷凍金槍魚﹐但由於等待政府出口批文的時間平均要花上33天﹐因此他只能向德國賣出300噸鮮魚﹐而向巴基斯坦賣出1,700噸凍魚。他每年為此付出的機會成本可能達到700萬美元。

曾在《經濟學家》(Economist)當過貿易記者的羅伯特•加斯特(Robert Guest)在卡圖研究所(Cato Institute)近日舉辦的一次論壇上發言﹐向人們講述了啤酒是如何從一個喀麥隆港口運送到該國的內陸雨林的。一次原本要不了一天的行程卻走了四天﹐貨車因沿途設立的關卡停了47次﹐向工作人員支付通行費和其他費用。

壁壘減少﹐貿易自然就會增加。這些壁壘不僅是指關稅﹐還包括腐敗、行政低效、繁文縟節、交通壟斷以及落後的技術。各國政府已開始積極減少這些壁壘﹐因為他們意識到在其國內開展業務的公司數量和質量、就業率、投資額以及經濟增長從某種程度上來說都取決於政府為實現“貿易便利化”而採取的措施。

斯蒂芬•克里斯考夫(Stephen Creskoff)最近在《國際貿易與關稅》(Global Trade and Customs Journal)雜志中指出﹐如果出口的美國貨物從倉庫運抵港口以及進口貨物從美國港口運抵國內倉庫所需的時間平均縮短一天﹐美國每年的貿易額將增加近290億美元。這一數字比經濟學家預計美韓自由貿易協定所能帶來的美國貿易年增幅還要高。

為減少傳統貿易壁壘而達成的協議固然很受歡迎﹐但貿易國手中也有不少“好牌”﹐它們自己也能採取變革。

(編者按:本文作者是卡圖研究所貿易政策研究中心的副主任。)

2008年7月29日 星期二

Siemens to claim damages from former CEOs

Siemens to claim damages from former CEOs

German engineering group Siemens says it will sue 11 former directors for damages in connection with a corruption scandal. An internal inquiry exposed 1.3 billion euros in payments by Siemens for apparently fictitious services by "consultants". In reality the money was used as bribes according to investigatiors. The directors, who resigned when the scandal broke nearly two years ago, include two former chief executives. On Monday former Siemens executive, Reinhard Siekaczek, was convicted in the first trial of a company director involved in the scandal and was fined 108,000 euros and given a suspended sentence. Prosecutors in Munich are still investigating around 300 people in connection with the affair.






Alcatel-Lucent Chiefs to Step Down

Alcatel-Lucent Chiefs to Step Down

By REUTERS
Published: July 29, 2008

Filed at 4:06 a.m. ET

PARIS (Reuters) - Telecoms equipment group Alcatel-Lucent on Tuesday ditched both its chairman and chief executive as it tries to galvanize a still-fragile merger following a series of profit warnings and falling market share.

Chief Executive Pat Russo, long rumored to be on an ejector seat, will leave before the end of the year while Serge Tchuruk, the architect of the 2006 merger, will leave on October 1.

The move comes weeks after shareholders heaped criticism on top directors following a string of profit warnings and a collapsing share price, and approved measures that would make it easier to oust them. The firm also reported a deep second quarter loss, stemming from the Lucent inheritance.

"I always thought they would both go, this way there is no loser or winner," said the chief executive of another French technology company who spoke on condition he was not be named.

The world's largest provider of fixed-line telecoms equipment, was created when Paris-based Alcatel bought Lucent of the United States. But it had trouble keeping up with technological change as the telecoms market turns more to voice over internet and mobile communications.

Its shares rose as much as 6 percent, after a 23 percent decline this year and a 55 percent fall in 2007. By 3:40 a.m. EDT the stock was up 4.4 percent at 4 euros.

"These departures are not a total surprise," said Exane analyst Alexander Peterc. "It is a good thing that the company can now move forward and put behind it the differences between the Lucent parts and Alcatel side," he added.

Henry Schacht, a former Lucent chief executive until Russo took his job in 2002, will immediately resign from the board.

Alcatel-Lucent said both Tchuruk and Russo had decided themselves to quit. It said the board would commence a search for a new non-executive Chairman and CEO immediately.

"The Board is also initiating a process to change the composition of the Board to a smaller group that will include new members," it added.

AU REVOIR

Russo jetted into her job in Paris filled with American corporate convictions that flew in the face of French culture.

She promised shareholders she would learn to speak French but did not have time to master the language.

Tchuruk, born in November 1937, is a former arms engineer born to Armenian parents in Marseilles who climbed the corporate ladder to become head of oil group Total before joining Alcatel in 1996.

A tireless strategist, he engineered a restructuring of the sprawling Alcatel empire into the core telecoms activities, a defense branch that became part of Thales and the Alstom industrial engineering group.

His departure is likely to reopen speculation over the future of Alcatel's large stake in Thales, which Tchuruk had, according to sources close to the matter, wanted to keep. Thales shares dipped 1.3 percent.

The merger with Lucent was meant to crown his career as it pulled the equipment firm back to the front line of global competition with Nortel , Nokia Siemens Networks and Ericsson .

"The merger phase is now behind us. I am proud that Alcatel-Lucent has become a world leader in a technology which is transforming our society," Tchuruk said in a statement.

"It is now time that the company acquires a personality of its own, independent from its two predecessors," he added.

Alcatel-Lucent also reported underlying April-June sales and profits which came in slightly ahead of expectations, but reported a big net loss for the quarter due to writedowns.

Nokia Siemens, Ericsson and Alcatel-Lucent are the leading players in the telecoms network market, but have been increasingly challenged by Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE <0763.hk>.

With aggressive pricing Huawei took the No. 4 spot in the global telecom network gear market at start of the year, bypassing Nortel Networks and Motorola .

(Additional reporting by Tarmo Virki, Jessica Mead, Julien Toyer, Sudip Kar-Gupta; Editing by Louise Ireland, Tim Hepher)

2008年7月22日 星期二

The Long Tail' since 2006, '...

http://www.google.com/trends?q=long+tail

哈佛研究挑戰長尾理論

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2008年07月17日15:22
果150年前就有PowerPoint的話﹐梭羅(Thoreau)可能會警告我們﹐不僅要謹防那些要求新衣服的企業﹐還要謹防那些需要新範例的企業。

每 隔一段時間總會有一些理論或書籍面世﹐迫使我們重新思考我們自以為瞭解的社會運作方式。2006年的《長尾理論》(The Long Tail)就是其中之一。該書認為﹐互聯網及其似乎無限的選擇正在改變經濟和文化的面貌。如今﹐發表在《哈佛商業評論》(Harvard Business Review)上的一篇文章對此予以了駁斥﹐並表示﹐當今社會出現的任何變化都可能是完全不同於以往的類型。

長尾理論的提出者、《連線》(Wired)雜誌編輯克里斯•安德森(Chris Anderson)認為﹐我們的文化和經濟重心正在加速轉移﹐從需求曲線頭部的少數大熱門(主流產品和市場)轉向需求曲線尾部的大量小眾產品。

原 因很簡單﹐互聯網賦予了消費者無限的選擇空間讓一切成為可能。一家唱片店只有放得下固定數量唱片的貨架空間﹐而對iTunes來說﹐只要服務器存儲容量夠 ﹐它就可以連接幾百萬首歌曲。 因此﹐安德森認為﹐面向特定小群體的產品和服務可以和主流熱點具有同樣的經濟吸引力。由此﹐企業管理者不得不相應調整他們的商業計劃。

自兩年前問世以來﹐《長尾理論》一直在矽谷(Silicon Valley) 被奉為聖典。先前那些可預見商業前景一般的商業計劃頻頻援引《長尾理論》加以佐證﹐原因是該書顯然已經證明互聯網不僅僅是少數大熱門的領地。如果有人對此 提出異議﹐他們會遭到遺憾和輕蔑的目光﹐就好像後者剛剛承認還在使用Kaypro電腦一樣。

如今﹐這種情形可能就要發生改變了﹐這都要歸 功於哈佛商學院市場營銷學教授安妮塔•埃爾貝斯(Anita Elberse)的一篇文章(網上鏈接﹕tinyurl.com/3rg5gp)。埃爾貝斯教授採用了嚴格的統計方法﹐對娛樂和文化產業的數據進行了分析 ﹐其嚴謹程度堪比棒球數據分析員的專業精神。

埃爾貝斯教授在分析了在線視頻租賃和音樂購買數據後發現﹐消費者在網上的購買行為模式和在實體商店裏基本一樣。熱門產品市場的重要性絲毫沒有被“小眾”產品削弱﹐而且有證據顯示﹐互聯網實際上正在使熱門產品的地位不斷增強﹐而不是萎縮。

Alamy
可別急著丟掉那些舊範例﹗長尾理論或許是錯的。
對 此﹐安德森在他的長尾理論博客thelongtail.com上回應道﹐他和埃爾貝斯教授的分析之所以有悖﹐大多是因為雙方對“熱門”和“非熱門”﹐或者 《長尾理論》書中提到的“頭”和“尾”﹐的定義不同。除此之外﹐安德森對埃爾貝斯教授大加讚賞﹐並表示他歡迎這種對長尾理論的嚴格審視。

除了嚴謹的數據分析之外﹐埃爾貝斯教授還提醒讀者﹐大量定性社會研究表明《長尾理論》在描述促使消費者選擇網上購物的因素上可能是錯誤的。《長尾理論》認為﹐讀者和電影觀眾急於擺脫實物庫存帶來的束縛﹐這樣他們就能夠在長長的尾巴上的成千、成百萬的作品中流連忘返。

但 是埃爾貝斯教授表示﹐研究顯示即便在文化消費當中﹐我們也經常是非常從眾的。我們喜歡體驗別人正在經歷的事情﹐僅僅是別人正在經歷和喜歡某樣東西的事實都 會使我們對之青睞有加。我們遠遠不是對文化有著截然不同品位的個人主義者﹐我們中的大多數人都非常樂意有人提議我們應當追從什麼。

熱門還是冷門﹖
正方﹕2006年﹐《長尾理論》提出﹐互聯網因為其提供的無限的“貨架”空間﹐可能導致大熱門產品市場的萎縮﹐冷門產品的高速成長。

反方﹕如今﹐一位哈佛大學教授發表的一項研究顯示﹐互聯網實際上是在鞏固一小部分文化熱門產品既有的絕對優勢地位。

爭論﹕消費者行為的要素。在形成自己的品位的過程中﹐我們是希望無限的選擇﹐還是喜歡從眾、跟隨他人的好惡﹖
本專欄的忠實讀者可能還記得﹐在《長尾理論》剛剛面市的時候﹐我們對它表示過的懷疑。現在回想起來﹐《長尾理論》 似乎也在遵循《連線》雜誌許多文章的套路﹕選擇一個半真半假、略有點意思、科技感十足的想法﹐鋪天蓋地地吹捧一番﹐然後把它歸到能夠顛覆世界的一類。

《長 尾理論》暢銷不衰的部分原因和這個理論本身一樣有意思。首先﹐它不吝筆墨地奉承其讀者──很多都身處科技行業﹐聲稱互聯網正在改變一切。此外﹐由於許多科 技精英對傳統的文化供應商(如錄音棚和電影工作室等)持有輕蔑的看法﹐他們傾向於欣賞一切預見傳統文化勢力遭到侵蝕的說法。

博客也在宣揚長尾理論方面扮演了特殊的角色﹐這也毫不意外﹐因為長尾理論宣稱﹐即便是最不起眼的博客也可能贏得大量讀者。但可悲的事實是﹐博客領域和其它文化產品一樣也受到“熱門驅動”理論的影響﹕只有很小部分的博客吸引了絕大部分的瀏覽量﹐還有很多博客根本無人問津。

互 聯網顯然正在改變人們的文化消費習慣﹐但是這些變化似乎並沒有涉及長尾理論預言的需求曲線急速變平的現象。雖然全新的文化產品──比如YouTube視頻 等確實正在嶄露頭角﹐但是它們似乎很快就陷入了“前谷歌(Google)時代”上演的“勝者為王”的老戲路。看著吧﹐可別急著丟掉那些舊範例﹗


Lee Gomes

(編者按﹕本文作者Lee Gomes是《華爾街日報》專欄“Portals”的專欄作家﹐欄目內容以科技、商業及相關的主題為主。)

Study Casts Doubt On Blockbuster Web Theory

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2008年07月17日15:22
Had PowerPoint been around 150 years ago, Thoreau might have warned us to beware not only of enterprises that require new clothes, but also of those that require new paradigms.
A book from 2006, 'The Long Tail,' was one of those that appear periodically and demand that we rethink everything we presume to know about how society works. In this case, the Web and its nearly unlimited choices were said to be remaking the economy and culture. Now, a new Harvard Business Review article pushes back, and says any change occurring may be of an entirely different sort.
The Long Tail theory, as explained by its creator, Wired magazine editor Chris Anderson, holds that society is 'increasingly shifting away from a focus on a relatively small number of 'hits' (mainstream products and markets) at the head of the demand curve and toward a huge number of niches in the tail.'
The reason involves the abundance of easy choice that the Web makes possible. A record store has room for only a set number of titles. ITunes, though, can link to all of the millions of songs that its servers can store. Thus, said Mr. Anderson, 'narrowly-targeted goods and services can be as economically attractive as mainstream fare.' Managers were urged to adopt their business plans accordingly.
Since appearing two years ago, the book has been something of a sacred text in Silicon Valley. Business plans that foresaw only modest commercial prospects for their products cited the Long Tail to justify themselves, as it had apparently proved that the Web allows a market for items besides super-hits. If you demurred, you were met with a look of pity and contempt, as though you had just admitted to still using a Kaypro.
That might now start to change, thanks to the article (online at tinyurl.com/3rg5gp), by Anita Elberse, a marketing professor at Harvard's business school who takes the same statistically rigorous approach to entertainment and cultural industries that sabermetricians do to baseball.
Prof. Elberse looked at data for online video rentals and song purchases, and discovered that the patterns by which people shop online are essentially the same as the ones from offline. Not only do hits and blockbusters remain every bit as important online, but the evidence suggests that the Web is actually causing their role to grow, not shrink.
Mr. Anderson responded on his Long Tail blog, thelongtail.com, saying much of the difference between his analysis and hers involved how hits and non-hits, or 'head' and 'tail' in the book's lingo, are measured. Aside from that, he was generous in praising the article, and said he welcomed the sort of rigorous scrutiny the theory was getting.
In addition to her data crunching, Prof. Elberse reminded readers of substantial bodies of qualitative social research that suggest 'The Long Tail' may have been wrong in its description of what makes consumers tick. The book implies that readers and movie viewers are eager to cast off the shackles imposed by physical inventory so they can frolic among the thousands or millions of titles in the Long Tail.
But Prof. Elberse describes research showing that even in our cultural consumption we tend to be intensely social folks. We like experiencing the same things that other people are experiencing -- and the mere fact that other people are experiencing and liking something makes us like it even more. Far from being cultural rugged individualists, most of us are only too happy to have others suggest to us what we'd like.
Faithful readers of this column might recall its own skepticism about the idea when the book first hit the stores. In retrospect, 'The Long Tail' seems to have followed the template of many Wired articles: take a partly true, modestly interesting, tech-friendly idea and puff it up to Second Coming proportions.
Some of the reasons for the popularity of the Long Tail were as interesting as the idea itself. For one, it flattered its readers, many of whom were in the tech industry, by suggesting (yet again) that the Internet was changing everything. What's more, since many in the tech elite have a contemptuous view of traditional cultural gatekeepers like record labels and movie studios, they were predisposed to appreciate anything that predicted an erosion of those institutions' cultural power.
Bloggers had a special role in talking up the theory, which is no wonder considering how it held out the promise that even the most obscure among them could win a robust audience. The sad truth is that the blogosphere is as hit-driven as the rest of the world, with a tiny percentage of blogs getting a huge chunk of the traffic, and with many blogs simply going unread.
The Web is clearly changing cultural consumption patterns, but those changes don't seem to involve the sort of drastic flattening of demand curves predicted by the Long Tail. While whole new cultural categories -- YouTube videos, for example -- are indeed emerging, they seem to quickly settle into the same winner-take-all dynamic experienced in the pre-Google age. Don't toss out those old paradigms just yet.

Hit or Miss?

Point: In 2006, 'The Long Tail' made a splash arguing that the Internet, with its expansive shelf space, would mean a smaller role for mega-hit products and a bigger one for also-rans.
Counterpoint: Now, a Harvard professor has published a study suggesting the Web is only cementing the prominence of a small number of cultural favorites.
At Issue: The basics of consumer behavior. Do we want infinite choice, or do we prefer to pick up on the likes and dislikes of others in forming our own tastes?

Lee Gomes


2008年7月18日 星期五

Starbucks' Lessons for Premium Brands

Starbucks' Lessons for Premium Brands

http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5973.html
After building a great franchise offering a unique customer experience, Starbucks diluted its brand when it overexpanded and offered too many new products. Harvard Business School professor John Quelch thinks the trouble began when the company went public.

BBC 克林頓斡旋 中印藥廠抗瘧藥降價

BBC 克林頓斡旋 中印藥廠抗瘧藥降價
蚊子
對付瘧疾仍然以藥物為主

美國前總統克林頓宣佈與中國和印度的六家製藥企業達成協議,將主要的抗瘧疾藥物售價削減30%。

克林頓還說,這些製藥公司還達成協議,將用於生產抗瘧疾藥物主要原料青蒿素的價格降低70%。

克林頓慈善基金會協助有關製藥公司達成了相關的降價協議。

克林頓在聲明中說,"只要獲得有效的治療藥物,原來因瘧疾而失去的每一個生命都可以得到挽救。"

他說,在為患者提供廉價和有效治療方面,這個宣佈已邁出了重要的一步。

克林頓表示,達成協議的這些公司將降低市場價格的波動,為患者提供低廉和可持續的抗瘧疾藥物,挽救更多人的生命。

這六家製藥公司分別是印度的Calyx、Mangalam、Icpa和Cipla,以及中國重慶的華立藥業(Holleypharm)和廣州的彼迪正天(PIDI Standard)公司。

克林頓基金會說,這個協議將使包括非洲、亞洲、拉丁美洲和加勒比海在內的69個國家的患者獲得更加廉價的抗瘧疾藥。

該基金會說,用於生產抗瘧疾藥的青蒿素售價此前因為需求大增而在很短時間內漲價700%。


Former President Clinton Announces New Agreements to Lower Prices and Ensure New Supply of Malaria Drugs

Price Reduction of More Than 30% for a Leading Malaria Drug Combination

Agreements with Six Suppliers Reduce Volatility of Key Raw Material Price by 70%

Former President Bill Clinton today, joined by the UN Special Envoy on Malaria and the Chairman and CEO of Novartis, announced agreements with six companies - Calyx, Cipla, Holleypharm, Ipca Laboratories, Mangalam Drugs and PIDI Standard - that lower the price of a leading artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) for malaria by 30 percent and reduce the price volatility of artmesinin, the key raw material for this and other ACTs, by 70 percent.

Up to 500 million people around the globe need malaria treatment each year. Today's agreements make prices for malaria drugs more affordable and sustainable to help meet growing global demand. The prices will be available to the 69 countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean that make up the Clinton HIV/AIDS Initiative (CHAI) purchasing consortium.

"Nearly every life lost to malaria could have been saved with access to effective medicines," President Clinton said. "My Foundation has helped organize markets for HIV/AIDS drugs, and I am proud that we have been able to extend this model to malaria. Today's announcement is an important step forward in global efforts to increase access to affordable and effective malaria treatment, and I applaud the commitments of these companies to lower volatility in this market and offer low and sustainable prices that will save more lives."

The scale up of ACT access has been challenged by significant volatility in the artemisinin market. Beginning in 2004, a rapid but uneven increase in ACT demand led to the price of artemesinin fluctuating by more than 700 percent. Novartis, the dominant ACT supplier to date, absorbed much of the financial impact, shielding patients from higher prices which would have decreased access. However, acting alone Novartis cannot meet increased future demand across the globe. Today's agreements will help to mitigate risk so new suppliers can enter the market.

Under the agreements negotiated by CHAI, Ipca and Cipla (both based in Mumbai, India) will offer a co-blister formulation of artesunate+amodiaquine (AS+AQ)-one of the most widely used ACTs-at or below an average ceiling price of 48 cents per treatment, a reduction of more than 30 percent from current market rates. They also will offer artemether-lumafantrine, the other most common ACT, at or below an average ceiling price of 91 cents, the current price available from Novartis. Among the other manufacturers party to the agreements, Calyx (Mumbai) and Mangalam Drugs (Mumbai) are active ingredient suppliers, and Holleypharm (Chongqing) and PIDI Standard (Guangzhou) are suppliers of the raw material, artemisinin.

"I come from a family of farmers and know first-hand about both agricultural production and pharmaceutical production," said Premchand Godha, Managing Director of Ipca. "Poor planning, bad weather, and other factors can dramatically influence price and cause volatility. We appreciate the Clinton Foundation's holistic approach to reducing that volatility and making lower drug prices sustainable in the long term."

"Since 2001, Novartis has supplied more than 180 million treatments of Coartem® to malaria-endemic countries," said Daniel Vasella, Chairman and CEO of Novartis. "We know first-hand addressing the health problems of the developing world is challenging and no single player can be successful. To make a meaningful and sustainable impact for patients, governments, international institutions, industry, and civil society must join forces."

CHAI has taken several additional steps to ensure a sustainable supply of ACTs. In June, CHAI published a global ACT demand forecast to improve the predictability of demand and enable suppliers to make informed production planning decisions. CHAI also has provided extensive technical assistance to partner ACT manufacturers to expedite regulatory approval. As the Global Fund, UNITAID, and the U.S. President's Malaria Initiative increase funding for ACTs, this support will help expand the set of high-quality suppliers able to meet growing demand.

In addition to their price commitments, Ipca and Cipla have also agreed to pursue rapid development and regulatory approval of a fixed-dose combination for AS+AQ, which is not yet available from any supplier approved by the World Health Organization (WHO) but is preferable to the co-blister formulation.

CHAI is committed to ensuring that its agreements offer high-quality products at sustainable prices, and these products meet the quality assurance standards of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria. Ipca's AS+AQ formulation has been approved by the WHO. All other formulations included in the agreement have been submitted for review with data establishing bioequivalence, based on studies conducted by contact research organizations that have been successfully audited by the WHO or a stringent regulatory authority. In many countries, half or more of all malaria patients buy their drugs from local shops, where ACT prices include distribution mark-ups and are too expensive despite the low prices offered by manufacturers. To help ensure these low prices are translated to access for everyone who needs ACTs, CHAI has piloted the use of subsidies to lower prices in these shops. This pilot has had rapid impact, decreasing retail prices from $10 to 50 cents and increasing ACT access among children by 60-fold. CHAI now is helping Tanzania and other countries take this model to scale.

Download a Q&A on ACT Treatment for Malaria


2008年7月16日 星期三

不要輕易相信世界級的權威預估

這英國的名園在21世紀初改為獨立的基金會
接受政府的補助娟款
英國政府當然花大全錢請顧問公司研究
預估的訪客人數是實際的什分之一(十年間 )
真是人算不如天算
所以
不要輕易相信預估
不管引用什麼世界級的權威


The garden has certainly outperformed the expectations of a feasibility study conducted by KMPG, the accounting firm, in 1997, which estimated it would attract 67,000 visitors a year -- only slightly more than the number of ticket buyers who toured the castle at the time. During its first full year of operation, the garden had 250,000 visitors, and by last year the number had jumped to 625,000.

2008年7月14日 星期一

N.Y. Mayor Offers New Poverty Gauge

N.Y. Mayor Offers New Poverty Gauge

Bloomberg Says Federal Measurement System Is Outdated



Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, July 14, 2008; Page A02

NEW YORK, July 13 -- Calling the current federal poverty measure broken and outdated, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg (I) on Sunday unveiled a new method that he and his aides said gives a more accurate picture of the poor, and that he hopes eventually will become the new national standard.

"If we are serious about fighting poverty, we also have to start getting serious about accurately measuring poverty," Bloomberg said in remarks prepared for delivery to the convention of the NAACP in Cincinnati. Bad weather prevented his flight to Ohio, and one of Bloomberg's deputy mayors made the speech in his place.

Bloomberg chose as his audience the nation's oldest civil rights organization, which is committed to increasing economic empowerment for African Americans, who remain disproportionately poor. His effort comes as the House Ways and Means subcommittee on income security plans a hearing this week on the need for a modern poverty measure for the United States.

The current federal measures show New York City with a poverty rate of 18.9 percent. But the new measure shows that the rate is 23 percent. And the new measure shows wide differences within that spectrum. There are fewer people in extreme poverty, reflecting the impact of anti-poverty assistance programs. But under the new measure, the number of elderly poor nearly doubles, from 18 percent to 32 percent, mostly because of health-care costs.


The current federal poverty measure, in use since 1969, is based primarily on how much of an individual or household's pretax income is spent on food. The federal poverty measure is used to determine eligibility and amounts of assistance from federal and state programs.

But Bloomberg's aides said that while food accounted for a third of household spending in the 1960s, food now accounts for only an eighth of spending, with housing and transportation taking a larger slice of income. The new measurement, put together by New York's Center for Economic Opportunity, takes into account a household's spending on food, clothing, shelter, transportation, utilities and out-of-pocket medical expenses.

Equally important, the advisers said, the new measurement also takes into account targeted poverty programs that the current measure does not -- for instance, whether the individual or household gets food stamps or housing subsidies.

"We don't have the benefit of an accurate measure of poverty," said Linda Gibbs, deputy mayor for health and human services, in a conference call with reporters.

The new measure also takes into account regional differences in housing costs to reflect the higher amounts in expensive cities such as New York and San Francisco.

The new measurement is based largely on a method the National Academy of Sciences proposed to Congress in 1995. The center also said it uses census statistics to make adjustments for geographic differences in housing costs.

2008年7月13日 星期日

雲門舞集 感動

四千多人 三億多元

雲門舞集 感謝各界捐款贊助打造雲門新家

According to legend, Cloud Gate is the name of the oldest known dance in China, a ritual dance of some 5,000 years ago. In 1973, choreographer Lin Hwai-min adopted this classical name for the first contemporary dance company in any Chinese speaking community: Cloud Gate Dance Theatre of Taiwan.

禮拜六,也就是712日晚上7點半,將由雲門舞集2在兩廳院的自由廣場為大家演出《斷章》喔!

《斷章》是旅德天才編舞家伍國柱,柱子哥,短短八年編舞生涯中,歷時三年才編作完成的重量級作品。天團大頭目老林也稱讚《斷章》是柱子哥最成熟的作品。

柱子哥出生於高雄縣彌陀鄉,24歲才開始學舞,十年後奇蹟似當上德國卡薩爾劇院舞蹈劇場藝術總監。也許是天妒英才,柱子哥上任後不久即發現得了血癌,36歲病逝台北。

《斷章》充滿抓癢、傻笑、生氣、無奈…等簡單、毫不起眼的尋常動作,卻能如刀刃般劃入人心,勾引出人們心中的孤寂與被愛的渴望,常讓舞者跳得淚流不止,讓觀眾深受震撼。

營運可靠度??

營運可靠度 "the Most Reliable Metro System"?

要看中文怎麼受到半生不熟的翻譯名詞"可靠度"等的汙染
可以參考下面的中英文對照
從技術念說
它這一簡單的指標是誤導人的
從翻譯角度
為什麼要將這樣狹窄的"可靠度"字彙 "送"給市民呢??

臺北捷運營運可靠度連續3年在Nova/CoMET組織會員中排名第一

Taipei Metro Once Again Rated the Most Reliable Metro System Among 26 CoMET and Nova Consortiums

"dwell time" management in Metro systems

 配合臺北市政府推動國際化政策,本公司自91年加入世界性捷運標竿組織Nova/CoMET國際鐵路聯會,藉由Nova/CoMET組織訂定之33項重 要績效指標(Key Performance Indicators, KPIs)進行數據蒐集與資料差異原因分析,以與世界上先進城市捷運系統經營績效相互比較,作為營運改善之依據。另亦對安全、可靠性及事故管理等不同主題 作個案研究,廣參其他系統具參考價值之營運管理資料,學習成功經驗。

The History of CoMET

The issues of control and cost were addressed by using the RTSC at Imperial College London. The centre facilitates the benchmarking programme as a venture under the control of the metro participants themselves, rather than offering a pre-determined programme. The group is under the control of a President from one of the participants, a post which revolves on an annual basis from metro to metro. This enabled the participants to direct efforts towards the areas which they felt would produce the greatest benefits or which were for them "hot topics" dictated by immediate issues arising from their own situations. Such issues included exploring reductions in maintenance cost and their relationship with reliability levels, or the impact of fare regulation on metro performance.

The first tasks carried out under the programme were to design and select a system of KPIs. At the same time, case studies identifying best practice in line capacity, investment effectiveness and maintenance were completed. The line capacity study showed that one of the best ways to increase capacity was by the control of the "dwell time"* in stations. It was a bilateral study between London and Hong Kong, but according to the philosophy of the group, the results were shared with the other members. NYCT seized on them immediately and launched a pilot project in New York entitled "Step Aside - Speed Your Ride", which produced an immediate 4.5% improvement in capacity on one of New York's busiest lines, with about 17% considered as achievable. This was done with minimal investment, merely some markings to tell people where to stand and some departure clocks to allow the drivers to standardise their "dwell time".



*這原先可能為軍事用語
(DOD) The time cargo remains in a terminal's in-transit storage area while awaiting shipment by clearance transportation. See also storage.

2008年7月8日 星期二

Waste not ...反對食品浪費

反對食品浪費

《獨立報》頭版報道,英國對浪費食品宣戰。英國政府展開活動,試圖停止英國大量浪費食品的現象,將此視為遏制食品價格急劇上漲的努力。英國超級市場將停止"買二送一"這類鼓勵顧客大量購買的推銷手法,因為這些購買往往超過顧客的實際需要。

今天英國內閣辦公室發表的報告顯示,英國大量丟棄食品,而世界許多地方仍然存在飢餓。報道說,因為包裝和運輸原因,英國可能有40%的食品被丟棄。報告說,英國家庭每年如果不丟棄410萬噸食品,每個家庭能夠每年節約420英鎊。

《衛報》頭版報道,英國首相布朗也說,英國人浪費的食物太多。報道說,英國的貧窮家庭購買食品的開支佔他們收入的15%。富裕家庭的食品花銷佔總開支的7-10%。



Waste not ...

We throw out 4.1m tonnes of food each year - the equivalent of £420 for every home. The government wants us to cut back, but how can we break our habit? Laura Barton and Jon Henley ask the experts for tips

There is something slightly irritating about the prime minister's insistence that it is down to us consumers to cut our food waste. Less than half of the food thrown away each year comes from households. To suggest that the average householder is to blame for our colossal national wastage is to ignore the way that the food industry has been allowed to develop in this country, from the relentless rise of the supermarket to the flourishing of the fast-food outlet, the decline in farming and the death of the local shop. All of these affect why we buy the wrong things, and why we buy so much of what we do not need.

Add to this changes in family structure, transformations in the shape of our towns and cities, moves to online shopping and shifts in working patterns and it's easy to see how we have become untethered from traditional production and consumption of food; today we tend to shop once a week, more often than not driving to an out-of-town supermarket rather than shopping locally, where we buy food increasingly prepared in a way that makes it go off faster, by manufacturers so scared of litigation that they stamp their products with sell-by and best-before dates.

Still, it would be churlish not to do our bit - so here we present 20 tips to waste not want not:

1. Avoid the supermarket

"Supermarkets are very expensive places to shop," says Joanna Blythman, author of Shopped: The Shocking Power of British Supermarkets. "The idea of the one-stop shop encourages you to buy more than you need." If you do have to go to a supermarket, make a list of what you need beforehand, and stick to it rigorously - but do check that these are groceries you genuinely need, and not items you have just got into the habit of buying: "There's the Stepford Wives aspect of supermarket shopping, where you start buying the same thing every time," says Blythman, "the same yoghurt regardless of whether you've run out of the last tub. But I just say don't shop in supermarkets. They are a rip-off."

2. Ignore two-for one offers

More often than not, supermarket two-for-ones exist because the items in question are nearing their use-by date, or to give shoppers what Blythman refers to as "the halo effect" - the feeling that they are in a place of endless bargains. But stop and think: are you really going to eat those 12 iced buns before they go stale? Are most of the cherries in those punnets even edible? Just how much custard do you require? "Two-for-ones are just encouraging overspending," says Blythman. "They're getting you to buy more than you need." Rose Prince, author of the Savvy Shopper, is also sceptical: "All this means is the supermarket has doubled the price for a given period and then halved the doubled price. Amazing, isn't it?" However, such offers can occasionally prove useful, if you are able to think laterally: "They are great value, but only provided you know how you can use the extra food," says Richard Swannell, director of retail programmes at Wrap, the organisation behind the website lovefoodhatewaste.com. "It's just being clear in your mind that you are going to use one and freeze the other."

3. Shop daily for perishables

By shopping daily for what you need, you are less likely to buy mounds of vegetables, meat and fish that will then sit in the fridge going off. Plus you will re-establish a connection with those who produce the food you eat. "The problem is that the distance between the people eating and the people supplying the food is getting longer and longer," says Moritz Steiger, co-author, with Effie Fotaki, of the Independent London Store Guide. Steiger points to the establishment of smaller, neighbourhood supermarkets such as Tesco Metro and Sainsbury's Local as evidence that we still have a desire for corner shops, but these smaller supermarket branches do not necessarily supply the best quality of food, nor do they offer the best deal for the supplier or the customer. Blythman agrees: "Supermarkets generally charge more than the independent greengrocer for fresh fruit and vegetables, especially seasonal produce." As does Prince: "My own researches show that you'll save a minimum of 35% - and usually a lot more."

4. Bulk-buy non-perishables

Bulk-buying storecupboard staples, such as rice, pasta and lentils, along with tinned and bottled items, online is cheaper than visiting the supermarket - not least because it considerably reduces the likelihood of being enticed into buying three punnets of strawberries and a tub of sprinkly cupcakes as you stroll the aisles. "In our house we bulk-buy rice in seven kilo bags," says Swannell. "It saves on packaging and money." Various websites offer a good range of store cupboard essentials, including nifeislife.com, which offers a variety of Italian foodstuffs across the UK, and gfd.org.uk for organic health foods and wholefoods in bulk. Blythman, though, suggests that rather than shopping online you can "just visit your local wholefood shop".

5. Be storage savvy

There are tonnes of household tips for storing foods to increase their longevity (many of them appear on the lovefoodhatewaste.com site) including topping and tailing carrots as soon as you buy them to prolong their life, keeping apples in the fridge so they last days longer than in the fruit bowl, and ensuring your olive oil is kept somewhere cool and dry to prevent the breakdown of the fatty acids. Also, invest in an EGG - "ethylene gas guardian" (4theegg.com): many fruits and vegetables give off ethylene gas as they ripen and the refrigerator traps this gas, which results in the early rotting of your produce. The EGG keeps the ethylene levels in your fridge low, meaning your vegetables last longer.

6. Meal-plan for the week

If, at the beginning of the week, you work out precisely what you wish to cook over the next seven days (some of which may incorporate leftovers), you can then shop with a degree of rigour, are less likely to be distracted by appetising products on the supermarket shelves, and even less likely to end up with a heap of unused foodstuffs at the end of the week. This approach also eliminates the common feeling of returning from the supermarket laden with shopping bags but without a clue what to actually cook for dinner. "In the past," notes Blythman, "people more or less had the same thing on particular nights of the week - leftover roast on a Monday, fish on a Friday ... " and while there is no need for your menu to become quite so predictable, a degree of planning ahead saves time, money and waste and will prevent you from falling back on ready meals.

7. Cook

While many of us have become rather adept at following recipes, we have, somewhere along the way, lost the ability to actually cook - a tangibly different skill which allows you to know just what to do with all the celery you didn't use in last night's risotto, for instance, or that quarter can of coconut milk that wasn't needed in the pumpkin curry. These aren't strictly leftovers but recipe byproducts, and the accomplished cook will be able to incorporate them into subsequent meals without a great deal of fuss or research. The idea is that you don't ever buy recipe ingredients without simultaneously considering where in your culinary week the remainders - that half a courgette, that zested lemon, that quarter block of feta - will find a home. So, whereas recipes can be seen as singular events, cookery is more of an ongoing project. "We didn't used to buy chicken pieces," says Blythman. "We bought a chicken. We had it hot once, and then we scraped the bits off it for sandwiches, and then we boiled the carcass and the gizzard and used the stock to make soup or risotto. Domestic economy was always a rolling programme, you used what you had as the base, added a few extra fresh bits. It's a question of momentum." G2 chef Allegra McEvedy agrees: "There are three main areas of waste: the first is ingredients that are past their best; the second is bits surplus to a specific recipe [as in 'take a third of a courgette and one stalk of celery') and the last being what is usually understood by the term 'leftovers'. For the first, there are two ways forward: buy less and don't be so quick to toss out. Summer fruit that's lost its shape and has squidgy bits can so easily and happily become jam. Super-soft avos will live again as guacamole for the night, and shrivelled tomatoes often have better flavour than taut-skinned ones, and make a stunning tomato soup. The truth is that almost anything in the kitchen has the ability to be born-again as soup or maybe a slow one-pot braise with some spices and a couple of tins - one of tomatoes, the other of some multi-faceted pulse, such as chickpeas."

8. Buy quality not quantity

"If you buy cheap supermarket bread you have no compunction about throwing it away," argues Steiger. "If you buy quality bread you're more likely to use every last bit of it." This goes for most food items, from the fancy yoghurt you're more likely to eat before the use-by date arrives, to the gourmet biscuits you probably don't want to leave to go soggy (or gobble all in one expensive sitting).

9. Freecyle/become a 'freegan'

The freecycle.org website should point you in the direction of your nearest group of freecyclers, a "grassroots and entirely non-profit movement of people who are giving (and getting) stuff for free in their own towns". That stuff often includes perfectly usable food. Freegans take it one step further, scavenging for food from supermarket dustbins that may be about to reach or is just past its sell-by date but is invariably still edible, or whose packaging may be damaged. Supermarkets, of course, detest them because they are proof that large food retailers throw out tonne after tonne of food that could still be safely consumed; as a result, many now stash their waste bins behind barbed wire fences.

10. Reacquaint yourself with your freezer

The freezer compartment is not just for storing ice cubes, a half-eaten tub of Häagen-Dazs and several inches of encrusted ice, but also to keep leftovers for future meals. Though it's not recommended to freeze salad leaves or crunchy vegetables, it's the perfect place for portions of rice, sprinklings of herbs, pre-sliced bagels that you can pop straight into the toaster. You can even freeze cheese and eggs (so long as you separate the whites and the yolks). It's also worth noting that freezers are more efficient when full, so you'll be saving the pennies there, too. Goodhousekeeping.com has plenty of basic tips for the novice freezer.

11. Don't be afraid of an empty fridge

"I think that goes back to the rise of the big American fridge," notes Blythman. "It's an aspirational thing." You do not, therefore, need to buy acres of food each week to keep it chock-full.

12. Grow your own herbs and salad

Packets of herbs and bagged salad are among the products most likely to go off in the fridge, so if you have a garden, balcony or windowbox, use that space to grow your own. These plants grow quickly and easily and, of course, save on food miles.

13. Buy vegetables whole

A lettuce bought whole and kept in your fridge will not go off in the same way as a pre-prepared salad will, because as soon as fruit or vegetables are processed in any way - even just picked, handled and washed - they begin to decompose. Likewise, it's best not to buy carrots that have been washed, then packaged in plastic and refrigerated, as they will rot sooner than the still-soily variety stored somewhere cool and dark.

14. Know how much a portion is so you don't overcook

Never forget the simple fact that with dwindling rice and wheat crops, the more you waste, the more expensive it will become. So the easy rule is to weigh before you cook: an average portion of rice for an adult is 50g (or a quarter of a mug); for pasta, it is 100g.

15. Bulk-cook meals

Blythman advocates cooking twice as much as you need of one dish and freezing the extra portions, or you can set aside time to stock up your freezer for the coming week. "Buy a box of over-ripe tomatoes from your local street market - they virtually give them away," suggests Prince. "Make a tomato sauce and you have the base for curries, bolognese or just a plain sauce for pasta or to top a pizza. Store both stock and sauce in discarded plastic milk cartons. They freeze beautifully and when frozen you just cut the carton open and heat."

16. Learn how to use leftovers

The lovefoodhatewaste.com site has a huge array of recipes contributed by celebrity chefs, nutritionists and members of the public, including a large number dubbed "rescue recipes" - in other words, how to put that bit of leftover chicken or half courgette to delicious use. There are also websites out there (leftoverchef.com and kitchen-scraps.com, to name but two) that, one you've typed in the primary and secondary ingredients you have spare, will go away and search their databases for recipes to use them up. Bit of fish left over, and some broccoli? Try, for example, Chinese steamed fish. And a couple of books may help: Second Time Around: Ideas and Recipes for Leftovers by Pamela Le Bailly, and The Use It Up Cookbook: Creative Recipes for the Frugal Cook, by Catherine Kitcho.

17. Look to previous generations

We have, as Guardian foodie Matthew Fort puts it, a great deal more food experience than previous generations, but considerably less food knowledge. We are familiar with the taste of foods from around the world, but we've forgotten how to make the most of what we've got already. During the second world war and well into the 1950s and even 1960s, food was precious: a week's meals were planned down to the last carrot, and we used every scrap of food in our larders (few had fridges), cooking dishes such as shepherd's pie and bread-and-butter pudding precisely to use up leftover scraps. These days, we're more likely to buy them ready made from the supermarket. "People just pick what they fancy off the shelves and end up throwing half of it away because they don't know what to do with it," says Sheila Tremaine, 81. "We never threw anything away, because if you didn't use everything up you had nothing to eat. People just seem to have lost that skill." The WI was founded to help women make the most of the food they had, and has some excellent tips and recipes. Try reading that doyenne of wartime cookery writers, Marguerite Patten: We'll Eat Again, a Collection of Recipes from the War Years, and Post-War Kitchen, Nostalgic Facts and Food from 1945-54 may provide inspiration.

18. Take sell-by dates with a pinch of salt

As a general rule, only "use by" is worth taking seriously; "sell-by" and "display-until" dates are merely stock-control devices for food retailers, and "best before" is simply the producer's estimate of when the food will stop tasting good, which is fairly subjective anyway. Rather than slavishly observing these date labels, we'd be far better off understanding the kinds of foods that could actually be harmful if they go off, such as ready meals (including sandwiches), soft cheeses, pates and cooked, processed meats and seafood. Eggs with a Lion Quality stamp can be kept for weeks in the fridge; chicken, raw meats and fish will all look and smell unpleasant long before they're actively unsafe (as long as you cook it thoroughly, chicken, for example, is good for at least a week past its sell-by date). Apples last for months; potatoes are fine as long as you chop the green shoots off before cooking; tins and jars will last decades if not centuries; hard cheese is indestructible; and dry foods will last for years too. "Ignore sell-by dates," insists Swannell. "They're not relevant. And best before is just what it says on the tin; it doesn't mean the food is toxic the day after that date."

19. Rediscover packed lunches

Leftovers can easily be recycled as packed lunches for children and adults alike - not only is this more frugal, in these credit-crunching times, than a daily trip to the gourmet sandwich shop, it also cuts back on domestic waste. Try rethinking leftovers as fillings for wraps or pitta bread pockets, making leftover vegetables into sushi rolls and bruised fruit as fools or compotes.

20. Equip yourself

Introduce yourself to the stockpot, the freezer bag, and the salad spinner. "Make your own bread," says Prince. "It's quick, easy and so much better tasting than shop-bought. It's also much cheaper. Make your own ice cream, it's a doddle. Invest in a mincing machine as an attachment to a food processor, and turn the leftover roast lamb into a base for shepherd's pie. While you're at it, invest in a sausage stuffer and ask your butcher for some sausage skins when you buy the pork."

· Additional research by Andrew Murray

'Frozen food is a wonderful thing'

Readers share advice

I grow my own vegetables. Other than that I buy food on a just-in-time basis. Not only is there no waste but I don't have cupboards or a fridge full of food going off . I never buy food until I have eaten what I have. Rice, pasta and orange juice is all I will buy in bulk because it can last for many months.
TheGoodLife

Last Christmas Eve our local Lidl placed all unsold perishable foods on a large shelf on the "Out" side of the checkouts, for people to take home for free. We ate off that bonanza for about a week. Thank you Lidl! Why can't all supermarkets do this, and more often (once a week would be nice ...)?
justlookaround

The value of food wasted per household in the UK could provide the protein for an extended three/four generation family for a week. These are not UN or NGO stats ... this is me looking at our pantry here in Mexico. Send me your money and I'll buy and distribute the beans ... thought not.
biba100mejico

I usually ignore "best before" on tins. I've eaten from tins that are 3 or 4 years old.
saintleethenaked

When I buy a loaf of bread, and don't think I'll eat it all before it goes stale, I put half in the freezer - you can make toast from frozen bread directly . As for leftover veg, I tend to make soup . Made in advance, it's the perfect quick, light supper for when I get in from work.
Ephiny

Most food will last much longer than its date. Yoghurt is a good one. I'll eat it maybe 2 or 3 weeks past date and it's fine.
Nyah

Frozen food is the most wonderful thing in the world. The only things I keep in my fridge are opened jars of food or sauce and dairy products and it has made such a difference to the amount of fresh food I used to waste.
jglitter

Use-by dates are far too conservative. Use the smell test. If it smells and looks all right and you cook it well, it's fine (obviously not for seafood!)
Emma100

Buy fresh ingredients, cook from scratch and only use what you need. Don't be afraid of eating leftovers . Be open-minded about combinations of food (I'm not talking about sardines and lime jelly ...). Freeze leftovers into single portions, for defrosting and reheating later.
CleoSelene

2008年7月7日 星期一

Washington Post Names Outsider as Its Top Editor

Washington Post Names Outsider as Its Top Editor


Published: July 8, 2008

The Washington Post has named Marcus W. Brauchli, a former top editor of The Wall Street Journal, as its executive editor, the paper announced Monday. The appointment comes as a new publisher, Katharine Weymouth, puts her stamp on one of the nation’s great newspapers.

Skip to next paragraph
Adrian Moser/Bloomberg News

Marcus W. Brauchli has spent most of his career as an editor and overseas correspondent at The Wall Street Journal.

The Post’s current executive editor, Leonard Downie Jr., had said that he would step aside in September.

The ascension of Mr. Brauchli, 47, to replace Mr. Downie, 66, continues a sharp generational shift at The Post. Ms. Weymouth, 42, took over as publisher in February, and is considered the probable successor to her uncle, Donald E. Graham, 63, as chairman of The Washington Post Company.

The second-ranking editor, Phillip Bennett, who has the title of managing editor, will report to Mr. Brauchli. He had been a candidate for the top job.

Mr. Brauchli, who spent most of his career as an editor and overseas correspondent at The Journal, will take over a newspaper that, like most in the industry, has been hit hard by falling ad revenue and circulation. More than 100 newsroom employees recently accepted a buyout at The Post, whose news staff has declined from more than 900 early in this decade to about 700, and several Post executives say they expect the newsroom to shrink further in the next few years.

At the same time, The Post is trying to merge its print and online news operations, to eliminate duplication and turf wars — a task that is said to be among Ms. Weymouth’s highest priorities.

Mr. Brauchli became the managing editor of The Journal, which is the paper’s highest editorial position, in May 2007. It was taken over in December by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation, and Mr. Murdoch and the publisher he installed, Robert Thomson, made an array of changes in the organization and content of The Journal. Mr. Brauchli resigned under pressure in April, and Mr. Thomson took his place.

Google, Zen Master of the Market

News Analysis

Google, Zen Master of the Market


Published: July 7, 2008

Bill Gates, who walked away from full-time work at Microsoft last month, was perhaps the foremost applied economist of the second half of the 20th century.

Skip to next paragraph
Peter DaSilva for The New York Times

Hal Varian, Google’s chief economist, in Mountain View, Calif.

Mr. Gates and Microsoft fundamentally shaped how people think about the behavior of modern markets in which technology plays a central role. Under Mr. Gates, Microsoft also challenged the conventional wisdom about competition, business strategy and even antitrust law.

Now, in the early years of the 21st century, Google is the company prompting a rethinking of assumptions.

Microsoft was a master practitioner of “network effects,” the straightforward precept in economics that the value of a product or service often goes up as more people use it. There is nothing new about the concept. It was true of railways, telephones and fax machines, for example.

Microsoft, however, applied the power of network effects more lucratively than any company had done before it.

Microsoft attracted consumers and software developers to use its technology, the software that controls the basic operations of a personal computer. The more that people used Microsoft’s operating system (DOS and later Windows), the more that third-party developers built products to run on Windows, which attracted more users.

So Microsoft’s success snowballed, and the company owned the essential technology, making it harder for users and developers to switch to alternatives.

But the Internet has changed the rules of networked competition, partly because Internet software standards are more open than those in the PC industry. That helps explain why Microsoft has struggled to catch up with Google in the rich new market for Internet search advertising.

Google’s huge, widening lead in that business suggests that while some weapons of competition have changed, the market dynamics are similar, say economists and industry experts. At this stage, they note, Internet search appears to be a market that is winner take most, if not all.

Google, it seems, is the emerging dominant company in the Internet era, much as Microsoft was in the PC era. The study of networked businesses, market competition and antitrust law is being reconsidered in a new context, shaped by Google. Google’s explanation for its large share of the Internet search market — more than 60 percent — is simply that it is a finely honed learning machine. Its scientists constantly improve the relevance of search results for users and the efficiency of its advertising system for advertisers and publishers.

“The source of Google’s competitive advantage is learning by doing,” said Hal R. Varian, Google’s chief economist.

In the Internet marketplace, Mr. Varian notes, users can easily switch to another search engine by typing in another Web address, so there is no tight technology control, as there is with proprietary PC software. Similarly, Mr. Varian says, advertisers and publishers can switch fairly easily to rival ad networks operated by Yahoo, Microsoft and others.

But economists and analysts point out that Google does indeed have network advantages that present formidable obstacles to rivals. The “experience effects,” they say, of users and advertisers familiar with Google’s services make them less likely to switch. There is, for example, a sizable cottage industry of experts who tailor Web sites to get higher rankings on search engines, which drive user traffic and thus ad revenues. These experts understandably focus their efforts on the market leader, Google — another network effect, analysts say.

Google executives often point out that personal data in its services like Web e-mail is not held in proprietary document formats, as it is in PC software. Formats aside, however, a person with a year or so of e-mail housed in Gmail is highly unlikely to switch as a practical matter, analysts say.

Taken together, these networked advantages enjoyed by Google are significant, most analysts agree. “It certainly does have an impact on whether other companies can be competitive threats to Google,” said Michael Katz, an economist at New York University’s Stern School of Business. “But it’s a very different way to lock people in than it was for Microsoft. It would be a lot easier for people to walk away from Google.”

Michael A. Cusumano, a professor at the Sloan School of Management at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, sees the difference in terms of what he calls “direct network effects” and “indirect network effects.” The direct effects, he says, include software document formats and technology standards that are owned by one company and that are incompatible with a rival’s technology. The indirect effects, he adds, include large numbers of users, the ability to learn from those users, the power of a well-known brand and user inertia.

“For Google,” Mr. Cusumano said, “the indirect network effects are very powerful.”

Google’s market power, it seems, is the economic equivalent of what in foreign affairs is called “soft power,” a term coined by the political scientist Joseph S. Nye Jr. This is the power to co-opt rather than coerce.

The implications of Google’s market power for antitrust law are just beginning to be considered. The Justice Department is reviewing Google’s planned partnership with Yahoo. Under the agreement, Yahoo, the No. 2 company in search, would farm out some of its search advertising to Google, the leader. Google has said the deal is simply a voluntary outsourcing arrangement, while opponents say it will reduce competition in search advertising even further.

Google’s market share alone invites scrutiny worldwide. In the United States, antitrust law defines a dominant firm with potentially monopolistic power as a company with 70 percent market share or more. In America, Google has garnered more than 60 percent of searches conducted and about 70 percent of the search ad market. In Europe, the definition of a dominant firm is one that has as little as 35 percent of a market, legal experts say.

Still, dominance alone is not an antitrust problem. The issue is the powerful company’s behavior, says Andrew I. Gavil, a professor at the Howard University School of Law. “You have to be big and bad, not just big,” he said.

The telltale signs of a company’s bad behavior include raising prices, hindering innovation and excluding competitors. There is no evidence that Google is engaged in suspect behavior, but it could be hard to spot. Its ad auction system, for example, is essentially a private marketplace run by Google, without much disclosure to advertisers or to Web publishers.

Mr. Varian, Google’s chief economist, acknowledges that the company has been criticized for its lack of transparency. But he says that the Google approach is a byproduct of its virtue as a fast-moving learning machine. “The system is constantly evolving to optimize efficiency, improve ad quality and make the pricing smarter, so you don’t want set rules that say we do X and we don’t do Y,” Mr. Varian explained.

Whether that kind of “trust us” explanation will satisfy government regulators, if Google’s market power continues to grow, remains to be seen. But Google seems to have learned a lesson from Microsoft and its antitrust troubles. Mr. Varian said antitrust training is mandatory now for Google managers.

“Google looks at what happened to Microsoft, and we’re going to follow the rules,” he said. “If you’re really successful, you need to know about antitrust. That goes with the territory.”

2008年7月6日 星期日

The KOMATSU Way

小松的七種價值觀
[PDF]The KOMATSU Way

コマツウェイの概要

マネジメントの重点活動項目

 グループ各社を含む経営トップが順守すべき項目として、経営トップが現場に立脚し自ら「生」の情報を把握し、以下を実行することを明文化しました。

経営トップが順守すべき5項目

  • 1. 取締役会を活性化すること
  • 2. 全ステークホルダーとのコミュニケーションを率先垂範すること
  • 3. ビジネス社会のルールを順守すること
  • 4. 決してリスクを先送りしないこと
  • 5. 常に後継者育成を考えること

Seven Ways of KOMATSU

 コマツウェイでは、特に「モノ作り」を支える共通の価値観を「Seven Ways of KOMATSU」と位置づけています。

Seven Ways of Komatsu

  • 1. 品質と信頼性の追求:品質は我々の最優先課題であり、これからも品質に関する妥協は一切しません。
  • 2. 顧客重視:お客さまの声を大切にし、満足いただける商品・サービスを目指します。
  • 3. 源流管理:「製品の企画から市場での稼働/不具合発生までのプロセス」を明確にし、発生する不具合を常により源流で改善して不具合の再発防止を図ります。
  • 4. 現場主義:方針、戦略、改善計画などの基となる情報は現場にあり、現場の事実を重視、顕在化させ、情報を「見える化」することが重要です。
  • 5. 方針展開:経営トップが経営方針を明示すると、すべてのレベルの社員が自らの役割を認識した上で、何を成すべきかを自主的に決定し、実行します。
  • 6. ビジネスパートナーとの連携:製品の開発段階からサービスに至るまで、全世界のビジネスパートナーが共に問題解決・改善活動に取り組み、ノウハウを共有化し、オールコマツとしての成長を目指します。
  • 7. 人材育成:企業の継続的な成長を支えるのはヒト=社員です。社員は企業にとってもっとも大切な資産です。グローバルな人材育成・教育は不可欠です。

2008年7月3日 星期四

鴻海精密CONNECTORS中国内地移転台湾

鴻海精密:コネクタ生産ラインを中国内地から台湾に移転
IBTimes
7月3日、中国国内メディアによれば、世界最大の電子機 器受託生産(EMS)事業者、台湾の鴻海精密工業(Ho n Hai Precision Industry)は自社中国内地コネクタ(PC用マザーボードと メモリー間のコネクターなど)生産ラインを台湾 に移転することを明らかにした。 ...

---

Hsu David

to me



這個消息很有意思 也有指標作用

事實上 大陸的電鍍成本已經遠超過台灣

早有許多廠商將 terminal 改在台灣生產 電鍍 然後送到大陸組裝

希望這樣的轉移可以累積一些 momentum

其實還有很多行業台灣成本已經有競爭力 但是因為供應鏈得關係 不得不設在大陸

如果貨機三通早日實現 相信轉移的速度會更快速

2008年7月2日 星期三

法国“经济战争学院”Ecole de Guerre Economique

经济纵横 | 2008.07.01

法国“经济战争学院”剑指中国

全球化时代的战争不再是攻城掠地剑拔弩张,二十一世纪的间谍装备也不再是无声手枪和窃听器。经济领域里的战争也是如此。老牌工业国家面对新兴门槛国家开始修建防御的门槛,法国“经济战争学院”要成为这场经济防御战中的“西点军校”。

更明确和夸张一点地说,现代经济战争决战在互联网。信息烟雾弹、数据盗窃、网络攻击与破坏,"虚拟战争"已经是经济间谍案中最常见的斗争方 式,也让西方工业国家的经济界感到特别头疼。德国宪法保护机构警告说,德国企业应该警惕来自中国等国家的网络攻击与谍报活动,但德国企业显然在这方面的危 机意识还不够。做得比较好的是法国人,他们成立了所谓的"经济战争学院",情报专家、军事专家和高级经理在这里培训学生,传授打赢虚拟的网络战争的各种本 领。

"经济战争学院"的法语名字是Ecole de Guerre Economique(缩写EGE,网址www.ege.fr),它设在巴黎市中心第七区,离埃菲尔铁塔和著名的军事学院很近。它的门脸不大,里面也很朴 素无华,第一眼看上去有点像一个民间组织的办公室。这所战争学院的最顶教具不是什么高科技武器,而是一台台配置顶尖的电脑。二十一世纪的经济间谍的工作方 式不是深入工厂和技术资料室偷拍,而是运筹帷幄,鼠标轻点。

"经济战争学院"的院长克里斯蒂安.哈布洛11年前与一些退役将军一手建起了这个学院。谈起建立这个学院的动机,哈布洛说:"西方世界面临越来越严 峻的竞争考验和冲击,一些工业种类消失了,很多人失去了工作岗位。"他说,现在的企业仅仅是拿出拳头产品是不够的,它们还要学会抵御信息攻击。三十年前商 业机密被窃还是很重大的危机,而如今打击一个竞争对手更快的方式是毁坏公司的形象、动摇公众对一个企业股票的信心。

哈布洛举例说,今年法国连锁超市家乐福在中国遭遇的危机中就是谍影憧憧。他认为,表面看来,家乐福在中国被抵制的原因是奥运火炬在巴黎受到藏独支持 者的冲击,实际上这只是一个诱因。他说,当时在中国广泛传播的煽动抵制家乐福的手机短信大部分来自中国境外,这很可能是家乐福的西方竞争对手所为。

哈布洛说,在应对来自俄罗斯和中国等国家的经济间谍和经济阴谋上,欧盟国家应该联合起来。他说,特别是在对付来势汹汹的国家基金上,欧盟单个国家的 应对能力有限。他指出,有中国背景的国家基金的运作动机是获得知识转让,而俄罗斯背景的国家基金的动机是对重要工业领域进行战略控制。

德国宪法保护机构现在已经很重视防范经济间谍工作。据该机构的最新报告,德国的一些拥有顶尖技术和专长的企业深受外国经济情报机构的青睐。德国吕纳 堡大学的研究估计,德国每年因为经济间谍而遭受的损失有500亿欧元左右,损失工作岗位约5000个。由于德国特殊的历史,建立"经济战争学院"恐怕在政 治上难以通过,但是今后可能会有类似的学院产生,只不过会叫别的名字。法国的"经济战争学院"目前的300多名学员中有几人是来自德国,这些学员毕业后的 就业对象往往是那些大型企业如欧洲宇航防务集团(EADS)或者国防部等。学员的培训时间是10个月,学费为一万欧元,学习内容有市场攻略、军事技术、情 报迷惑术和经济犯罪案例分析等。哈布洛说,具体的课程是对外保密的,但肯定都是合法的。

2008年7月1日 星期二

Starbucks closing 600 stores in the US

讀者比較關600家還是500家
其實企業多如採此
譬如說 英國的 PUB/BAR等等 每年因稅和禁煙等關閉數千/萬家呢
教訓是.....

Starbucks closing 600 stores in the US

...appeared there was no such thing as too many Starbucks for U.S. coffee drinkers, whose willingness...in a sign that those days are over, Starbucks Corp. announced Tuesday it will close...the company's own rapid expansion. Starbucks did not say which stores will be closed...

July 1, 2008 - - Business - News


星巴克宣佈關閉更多門店並裁員

2008年07月02日07:07
巴克(Starbucks Corp.)宣佈﹐將再關閉500家美國門店並裁員7%﹐這是其美國擴張計劃一次最嚴重的倒退。

此舉實際上也為星巴克飛速增長的時代劃上了句號﹐自80年代末以來﹐星巴克在美國各地鋪天蓋地進行擴張﹐共開設了約1.1萬家門店。這同時也是咖啡專營店出現不利轉折的信號﹐麥當勞(McDonald's Corp.)等主流餐飲企業已開始大量投資這一業務。

星巴克表示﹐這500家門店加上今年初已宣佈關閉的另外100家門店﹐將在本財年餘下時間和下一財年上半年關閉。公司表示﹐將因此裁減多達12,000名全職和兼職員工。

星巴克沒有具體披露哪些門店將被關閉﹐但它表示﹐這些門店遍及所有美國主要市場﹐其中約70%是2005年秋天以後開業的。星巴克稱﹐關閉的門店要麼不賺錢﹐要麼不能在未來提供可接受的投資回報。

在本個10年中﹐星巴克在全美各地增開了數百家門店﹐目的是在推動銷售的同時﹐為那些顧客過多的店鋪分擔客流。星巴克門店在紐約等大城市的密度之大﹐更使其成為了美國的一個標誌﹐大量有關星巴克無處不在的笑話也應運而生。

然而到了去年﹐星巴克銷售開始走軟﹐顯然﹐公司如此的擴張對其成功的業務產生了威脅﹐也導致現有門店的質量出現下滑。分析師曾指出﹐星巴克近年來在選址方面的標準有所降低。

公司關閉門店的決定可能會令華爾街感到高興﹐因為市場人士一直在敦促公司關閉更多的店面、同時迅速削減支出。下個財年﹐星巴克計劃在美國增開的自有門店數量不超過200家。公司表示﹐將把部分店面擴張計劃轉移到更具潛力的海外市場。

(更新完成)

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